Thursday, October 9, 2008

Power Rankings #1! Let it begin!

NFL season is awesome!  Very little beats watching physically dominating gladiators pounding each other, QB's launching 50-yard bombs down the sideline in crunch time, and running backs blasting through holes so they can run over DB's.  You'll notice that I cleverly and strategically inserted the phrase "very little" at the beginning of that sentence.  

That's because there is one thing that tops the anything that the gridiron has to offer... the NBA of course!  We are only a few weeks out and the elements of the NBA  are already ricocheting back and forth inside my brain.  I can't wait to see my first Lebron James dunk, CP3 no look pass, Kobe fade-away, and Carmelo Anthony cherry pick!  

With all that said its time for my first edition of NBA Power Rankings...
 
1)  Lets just get this out of the way... I'm a Lakers fan.  I'm not even going to try to deny it.  I love the Lakers.  However, their numero uno ranking has nothing to do with that infatuation.  It probably has more to do with them winning the possibly toughest conference the league has ever seen last year.  I realize they were exposed in the finals for their lack of toughness (primarily on the inside).  With that said they were still the more talented team.  Oh and their getting a certain guy back that could help add some interior toughness.  The questions are: How healthy is that guy and how well will he play with Gasol?


2) Lets just get this out of the way... I hate the celtics.  What they did to my Lakers last June was ruthless and cruel... but impressive.  This team is all set up to be the best team in the east again.  As long as they continue the practice of that remarkable defense, they will probably find themselves being one of the last two teams standing.  My first concern is I'm not completely convinced their defense will be as unbelievable this year as it was last year.  Garnett's defensive effort won't waver a bit, but it was also built into his genetic makeup.  For guys like Pierce and Allen it takes extra effort.  Two straight years of that effort is a lot to ask of guys who have been scorers first their whole career.  My second concern is they lost a guy like James Posey and replaced him with Darius Miles.  Other options are Tony Allen, Bill Walker, and J.R. Giddens.  We'll have to wait and see how that goes.


3)  The New Orleans Hornets are scary good.  They don't have many great individual players (except Chris Paul and even Peja Stojakovic at times), but have players that play really well with Chris Paul.  They've got good defenders at every position in their starting line-up except the small forward spot.  Even then they can have James Posey come off the bench and provide more defensive stability.  My main concern is their lack of a low post scorer (and I don't count the alley-oop dunks Tyson Chandler gets as low post scoring and even David West is a better mid-range player than low post).  But do they really need it?  Paul is impossible to keep out of the lane so they get plenty of shots around the basket and they don't live and die by the three.  However, if the rest of the league learns how to defend the pick and roll it could cause trouble for the Hornets' offense.


4)  The window for the Detroit Pistons to get another ring is closing fast, but I still think they've got another year or two as a contender.  Michael Curry supplanting Flip Saunders as head coach is a definite plus for a team that didn't really like Saunders much.  Curry has played and coached with Detroit--including the 2004 championship team-- and understands the culture of the organization.  This team will be refocused defensively and I like some of their young players.  Look for Rodney Stuckey to have a great year.  My concern is their scoring on the low block.  Obviously, Rasheed Wallace is still one of the best power forwards in the game but is 34 years old and played only just over 30 minutes per game last season.  Antonio McDyess has low tread on his tires and Jason Maxiell  and Amir Johnson are solid players but not real scoring threats.  That leaves Walter Hermann and Kwame Brown.  Ummm... moving on...


5)  The Utah Jazz have been a really good team the past two years.  And don't mistake their second round exit last year after a trip to the conference finals two years ago as a step backward.  Playing the Warriors in the playoffs is a whole lot different than playing last years Lakers squad.  If they continue to improve they could foreseeably win the west.  Deron Williams is the second best point guard in the league, Carlos Boozer is a beast on the block, and they've got ample weapons surrounding them.  What is holding them back?  Fouling and poor road play.  The latter is especially worrisome because they won't have home-court advantage against the Lakers or Hornets.


6) The San Antonio Spurs are on the decline.  Every difference maker on the squad--besides Tony Parker--is over 30.  With that said, they are still the most disciplined and well-coached team in the league.  And when Manu Ginobili is healthy he's one of the most dynamic players in the league.  They're still one of the best teams in the league, but if they want a chance at another ring they're going to need some pleasant surprises.


7) I know the Houston Rockets now have one of the three best trios in the league because of Ron Artest.  However, I still don't see them finishing better than fifth in the western conference.  Yao Ming has only played an average of 53 games each of the last three seasons.  Tracy McGrady has only played an average 61 games over that same stretch.  Ron Artest... only 56 games per season the last three years (granted not all of his missed games were due to injury).  What good is a three-headed monster if only one or two of the heads ever work at the same time?



8)  This Phoenix Suns team isn't as done as some people might think.  Sure the S.S.O.L. (Seven Seconds Or Less) era is over, but they still have two of the top 15 (maybe 10) offensive players in the league in Steve Nash and Amare Stoudamire.  And maybe Matt Barnes and Robin Lopez can spice things up by adding a foreign ingredient... it's called defense.  The Suns start out eighth in these rankings but don't be surprised if they move up.


9)  The Portland Trailblazers are by far the most intriguing team coming into the 2008-09 season.  There is so much potential...for both success and disappointment.  As long Brandon Roy stays healthy this team will be fine.  Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez might all end up as three of the top 10 rookies this year.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw will probably continue to improve and help put this team in the playoffs.  Random prediction: Luke Jackson will flourish this year.



10)  I don't feel like the Dallas Mavericks should be in top 10.  It's obvious Jason Kidd doesn't mesh with this team on the court and I just don't feel like the players on this team really like each other (I don't really know why... it's just a feeling).  Add Josh Howard to the mix and you've got a fairly combustible situation.  And given Rick Carlisle's reputation for not getting along with players, he probably won't fix anything.  But the Mavs will probably still make the playoffs.


11)  The Orlando Magic are the third best team in the eastern conference, but they probably were last year also.  What makes this year different? Well they could actually beat the Celtics or Pistons in a seven-game series.  Courtney Lee is going to add scoring and I like the Michael Pietrus addition.  But I'm not sure Anthony Johnson was the best answer to their point guard questions.


12)  This speaks to the depth of the western conference. 
 The Denver Nuggets--who became a punch line after playing historically bad defense and about no team basketball in a first round series against the Lakers in the last year's playoffs-- probably won't make the playoffs but are would still be the fourth best team in the east.  Still they won't play defense this year (especially after losing their only line of defense in Marcus Camby) and won't play in the postseason.  But Mateen Cleaves' smile should be worth 30 wins by itself.


13)  While I think the Magic are better than the Cleveland Cavaliers, I also think that Cleveland has a better chance of getting to the finals.  I really want to like the acquisition of Mo Williams but I think he might just be a healthier Larry Hughes.  I do believe drafting J.J. Hickson at #19 in the draft was a wise move.  But this team probably isn't much better than they were the past couple of years.


14)  The Philadelphia 76ers are immeasurably better with Elton Brand on the team.  The question is: Will Andre Iguodala be as good as his new six-year $80 million contract suggests he is.  He was a no-show in the playoffs last year, but when he's on his game he's worth every penny.  This team could finish ahead of Cleveland and Orlando but they still have a lot to prove.



15)  Trading T.J. Ford for Jermaine O'Neal was a genius move.  It appeared that Chris Bosh may have reached his ceiling but now with another all-star caliber player on the other block we may see Bosh flourish even more.  Now if Jose Calderon continues to improve and Andrea Bargnani reappears then this team could finally be poised for a deep playoff run... but don't count on it.



16)  Well Baron Davis is gone and Monta Ellis is out for a few months (because of a moped?  Shouldn't NBA players at least be riding those Segway thingys), but they've still got Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson.  Andris Biedrins could be a rising star and I expect a solid season from Brandan Wright.  All of that combined adds up to an okay team.


17)  This team might be twice as talented as last years Miami Heat.  Having a healthy Dwyane Wade helps that cause.  Having Michael Beasley will help Shawn Marion because now he can go back to being the glorified garbage man that we grew to love.  Welcome back to the playoffs Miami.



18)  The Los Angeles Clippers have some nice pieces.  Obviously Baron Davis was a positive addition (if he stays healthy and happy).  Also, Chris Kaman is much better than people give him credit for and Al Thornton could have a really good sophomore campaign.  But I'm not completely confident in Eric Gordon (he doesn't completely understand the game and I'm not sure Baron Davis is the guard you want teaching him) and having Ricky Davis automatically throws a "Lottery" label on your franchise.


19)  The Chicago Bulls are better than everybody thinks.  And not because of Derrick Rose (I believe he will struggle this year), but because last year they underachieved.  Things got off to a bad start and they just couldn't turn it around.  They still don't have any low-post scoring, but I still expect to see the Bulls we saw two years ago as opposed to last years disappointment.


20)  The Sacramento Kings actually have a nice little squad.  They've got talent at essentially every position.  Look for rookie point guard Bobby Brown to be a top 20 rookie and make an immediate impact.  Head coach Reggie Theus had this team playing really well at times last year and they could potentially shock everyone by making a run at the seven or eight seed in the west.


21)  I know the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs last year, but I don't think they'll do it again.  It's strange because they have everyone besides Josh Childress back.  Both Josh Smith and Al Horford will be better and they even added Maurice Evans.  But Childress was a bigger part of that team than people realize.  It'll take more than 37 wins to make the playoffs in the eastern conference this year and this team is built to underachieve.


22) Injuries, injuries, injuries.  The poor Washington Wizards can't escape them.  Caron Butler is good, but he's not a franchise player.  The rest of the cast isn't overly impressive either.  Back to semi-futility for the Wizards.


23) The Indiana Pacers actually have pretty good perimeter players.   Danny Granger is really good (not great), Mike Dunleavy Jr. can score, Brandon Rush is a nice addition, and T.J. Ford and Jarrett Jack will bring stability to the point guard position.  The problem is the Pacers have NOTHING down low.  Troy Murphy might as well be a perimeter player and don't even get me started on Roy Hibbert.


24) Devin Harris just might be the best player for the Nets this year... not a good thing.  Brook Lopez might be okay and Chris Douglas-Roberts will be fun to watch.  But that's about it.


25) On paper the New York Knicks could be a playoff team.  Then we remember that this is the most dysfunctional franchise in the league right now and everything makes sense.  The only way this team avoids the lottery is if Patrick Ewing laces em' up.  Oh wait...

 
26) Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Russell Westbrook form a solid nucleus for the future.  But for now... the Oklahoma City Thunder stink.


27)  Maybe the Richard Jefferson-Michael Redd combination will be better than I think and maybe Charlie Villanueva will emerge as an all-star, but it's not likely.  


28)  There's a good chance that I am underrating this team.  But they still have never proven that they're headed in the right direction... and I'm giving them a chance to over-achieve. 


29) The Memphis Grizzlies have some nice guards, but nothing down low.  They used to have this one power forward who was pretty good.  I wonder what happened to him.


30)  Al Jefferson might be the best player in the league that nobody has ever heard of.  That's what playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves will do for you.  Another year of futility is on the horizon.

  

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