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I was pretty successful with last year’s regular season predictions, but it fell apart in the playoffs. Although I had Colorado finishing dead last in the West, I did have Arizona in the NLCS and picked five of the six division winners.
American League East
1.) Boston - How can you not pick the defending World Series champs when practically their entire team returns intact? Their rotation is somewhat suspect if they have to rely on Lester AND Buchholz (or Tavarez) instead of just one with Schilling being out. Trading Crisp for a SP could be a possibility, but if the Sox hold onto him, they could have the deepest outfield in baseball. If Schilling can return after the All-Star break, it could prove to be a huge momentum boost to the team. They should have the best bullpen in the majors.
2.) Toronto - Yeah.....this is going out on a limb, but this could be the year the Jays truly make a playoff push. Eckstein and Rolen are clear upgrades on the left side of the infield. Rolen should feel invigorated to get out of St. Louis. This team has no glaring weaknesses, but to finish second it will need Wells to hit much better than the .245 he hit last year. McGowan, Marcum, and Litsch are unspectacular but solid 3,4, and 5 starters to complement two studs in Halladay and Burnett. The return of B.J. Ryan should definitely help.
3.) New York - It was hard to not pick them second, and they could very well win the whole thing - especially when mid-season acquisitions are accounted for - but I think this is the year karma finally doesn’t go their way. They have no idea what they can expect from Pettitte or for that matter anyone in their rotation other than Wang. Mussina has nothing left, and Chamberlain could have to fill his role which would devastate the bullpen if that happens. Scouts say Jeter’s range gets shorter by the year, and I highly doubt Posada hits over .330 in two consecutive years. Although I think Girardi will eventually be an excellent hire, I’m predicting the team will miss Torre in Year One.
4.) Tampa Bay - They ain’t the Devil Rays this year so they won’t be finishing last. The Rays have three quality starting pitchers for the first time since.......well, ever. And clubhouse cancers Young and Dukes are gone. Floyd will prove a nice complement to Gomes at DH. If Percival can continue what he did in St. Louis last season, the closer role will be solid. Here’s to hoping that Longoria is everything he’s supposed to be. Has Pena really gotten it together now or was last season an aberration?
5.) Baltimore - Eeeek. No Tejada and no Bedard equals cellar dwellers for this club. Adam Jones could be fun to watch, but this team has no good position players aside from Markakis. This has to be the worst rotation in baseball. This team is building for the future and hopefully it works, because they haven’t been a factor since ‘97.
American League Central
1.) Detroit - I just can’t not pick this team. It’s loaded. I picked them to win it last year, and at the All-Star break they were the best team in baseball but faded after that. This is the best 1-9 lineup on paper that I have seen in my lifetime. I expect the rotation, including a rejuvenated Willis, to be fairly solid. The bullpen is weak, but...............look at that lineup! Renteria’s defense needs to be much better than the last time he played ball in the A.L. This team could always add a bullpen arm at the deadline.
2.) Cleveland - They were the second best team in baseball last year. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t have Josh Beckett, and this year the Tigers improved. This is basically the same team as last year. Hafner should have a better year, and Sabathia is playing in a contract year, which is a scary thought. They have a very good bullpen, but Borowski is scary- scary good and scary bad.
3.) Chicago - I don’t think this is a good team, but it’s better than the remaining two. I give them credit for trying to shake it up though. Cabrera will give some life to a lineup that is quite average. Swisher could be a positive influence in the clubhouse as well as the field. Linebrink is a solid addition to the ‘pen, but his contract borders on insane as his numbers continue to get worse. Dotel is good..........when he’s healthy enough to pitch. Ozzie says he’s going to be more strict this year. How will the team respond when they’re so used to him being so easy going. (No, not really).
4.) Minnesota - Losing Hunter and Santana and not being last in the division would be an accomplishment. Silva and Garza are also gone. Their season will depend a lot upon how well Liriano pitches after being out all last year. Except for Hernandez, the rest of the rotation is young. Young needs to have a monster year and an even better attitude. Too many questions about the rotation to put them above Chicago.
5.) Kansas City - The 1-3 starters are very solid. That’s about the only thing this team has going for it. Soria is an up-and-comer and so is Gordon, who should have a much better season than last year. I think 3-5 in this division are real close, but the Royals simply don’t have enough fire power in their lineup, and any team that starts Brett Tomko has to finish last. They should re-sign Reggie Sanders if for no other reason than his presence in the clubhouse.
American League West
1.) Los Angeles - This is another two-horse race but the Angels’ depth gives them the nod. They have four outfielders just as potent, if not better, than Boston’s. They might miss Cabrera, but they have Wood in waiting. Their rotation is very solid with all five starters having the ability to get a ‘W’ every time they go out. This team will need to stay healthy as they have several guys who have broken down in recent years. Sounds like K-Rod will be pitching mad and pitching for a contract. Other teams better be ahead going into the 9th.
2.) Seattle - So many A.L. teams have stellar 1-2 SP combinations, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Hernandez and Bedard are the best. This rotation is much better than last year’s and should match the Angels all year long. They too have an outstanding closer in Putz. Last year, I picked them last in the division and couldn’t figure out how they were keeping pace. I think their rotation is awesome, but still wouldn’t want to rely on anyone in the lineup other than Ichiro and Johjima. Vidro was relatively healthy last year. Think he can do it again?
3.) Texas - I’m really tempted to put Oakland here, because the Texas rotation is THAT bad. They have enough professionals in the lineup to hold onto third place though. Kinsler and Saltalamacchia need to step up and show they can be feared major league hitters. Too much would have to go right for this club to finish higher than third.
4.) Oakland - “Turn out the lights, the party’s over ” They’ll be back, but this is a rebuilding year. There’s no guarantee Blanton will be around after the All-Star break, heck or even Opening Day. Harden is a beast the 7 games a year he pitches but simply can’t stay healthy. Other than that, the rotation will be in trouble. You know they’ll have youngsters coming up to contribute, but there’s not way I can justify putting them anywhere besides last place. Probably will be the worst team in the American League.
Playoffs
I think there are seven teams who have legitimate postseason aspirations: Boston, Toronto, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle. But the wildcard has got to go to Cleveland.
ALDS
Detroit (1) OVER Boston (3) - I just don’t trust Boston’s young rotation enough......yet. Although the same could be said for Detroit’s bullpen. Boston’s luck has to run out sometime.
Los Angeles (2) OVER Cleveland (4) - This is a tough call. Both teams appear to be evenly matched. I just like L.A. slightly more overall than Cleveland.
ALCS
Detroit (1) OVER Los Angeles (2) - I’m banking on the Tigers getting bullpen help at some point this season, unlike last year, and am going with the Tigers again. I think the Detroit rotation will be strong all year.....they’ll have to be.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMP: Detroit Tigers
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